Essendon are the worst favourites in the AFL since 2012 so are in a prime play-against spot. West Coast is 33-19 against the spread when favoured by three or more goals in WA. Melbourne have covered just 3 of 11 night/twilight games. The Magpies have covered five of the last seven against the Swans and have covered 12 of 18 off a loss.

Geelong have also won their last four by 28-plus points and have covered four of their last six against the Bulldogs.

The Saints are poor favourites.

West Coast have covered 11 of 16 off a win of 30-plus. The Eagles cover at 63% when favoured by more than two goals and 69% when favoured by more than four goals. The Bulldogs cover at just 45% off a loss. The Bombers have covered five of their last seven as an underdog and cover at 62% when an outsider of more than two goals, a clear indication the market usually gets them wrong. Add articles to your saved list and come back to them any time. When favoured by 10 or more points off a win the Saints have covered just 3 of 13. Punters will be looking forward to the Giants vs. Magpies and Hawks vs. Kangaroos clashes. The Official Footy Tipping Competition of the AFL. The Tigers are starting to get hot and can be ridden here. They have not broken 60 points since Round 1. Jun 22, 2020 | AFL, Betting Tips. The Blues cover at a stunning 61% in Victoria when an underdog.

The Swans have won just 1 of their last 6 with four losses of 28-plus in that run.

They have covered the start just once this year. Collingwood have covered two of their last three against Richmond and in a cracking matchup to restart the season can win a close affair against the defending premiers.

They have conceded 129 more points than the next worst defensive side.

Geelong have covered 9 of their last 12 when favoured by fewer than two goals. Since 2012 the Cats cover at just 37% when favoured by four-plus goals. But he’s very short and not one you can pile in too. The tipping tables within list out expert tips for every game. Carlton cover at 62% when getting more than three goals start. More than happy to take the Cats as an underdog. They are winless and are historically poor defensively. The Tigers have won 17 of their last 18 at the MCG when favoured by more than two goals including six of their last seven. Richmond have a horrendous record against North Melbourne and the thinking is history will repeat itself again here. They have failed to win any of their first nine games. St Kilda have covered just six of their last 17 when favoured so the Demons look the play in this one. He’ll likely rely on Geelong coming out winners on the day, but at $26, he presents great value.

The four finals last week were all decided by fewer than three goals and this one should be too. There are six games to get excited about this week … They have covered 11 of their last 15 at the MCG when an outsider of more than a goal.

Essendon’s only won in their last three was an unconvincing one against Adelaide. The Demons have covered seven of their last eight against the Crows and the Demons have covered four of their last six off a loss of 30-plus. The Cats cover at 59% when an outsider and have covered 10 of their last 15. If you don't already have a Betfair account: You account does not have sufficient permission to view this page. The Eagles are 28-15 against the line when favoured by five goals. The Hawks have failed to cover their last five as an underdog. The Swans strike as tremendous value here. Fremantle have covered 9 of the last 12 meetings with Geelong including three of the last four in Perth. The Carlton plus a play … who would have thought. This bodes well given the winner of this award is also selected by industry personnel.

The Blues have covered two straight against the Saints and seven of the last 10. I’m expecting the Tigers to have a plan in place to slow down Patrick Dangerfield, whilst Guthrie should be able to get his usual ball out wide and through the midfield.

When favoured by more than two goals the Bombers have covered just 15 of 51. This is going to get messy. The Bulldogs are a major take-on team when favoured. The Crows have covered just two of 13 getting more than two goals. The Dockers have a good cover record off a big win, making the nut at 59% when off a 60-plus win. West Coast have an outstanding record in Perth when heavily favoured. The Swans have historically been very good travellers and that is cranked up when they are an underdog with the Swans covering at 60% as a travelling outsider. The Bombers have covered at just 37% when the elect in betting.

They cover at a clip of 62% when favoured by more than two goals and 64% when favoured by three goals.

Geelong make the nut at a rate of 61% as an underdog since 2012, while they have covered 10 of 14 as an interstate outsider so travel poses no issue.

There’s in-depth analysis, betting strategy and reasoning behind each of their selections. They have also dropped the last two against Saints with St Kilda covering 8 of the last 12 meetings.

Hawthorn has covered just two of their last seven as a favourite off a win. The Hawks have won 10 of 11 against the Crows and covered six of the last eight. Find out more about our policy and your choices, including how to opt-out. They have now won three on the trot with all three wins coming by more than five goals. 2020 AFL Round 4 – Tips, Predictions & Odds. Fremantle cover at 57% when favoured.

Fremantle have covered eight of 11 against Melbourne and matchup well. As a favourite off a win of five or more goals the Magpies are 12-22 ATS. Collingwood have lost three of their last five with their two wins against the struggling Swans and the hapless Crows. Carlton getting a big plus is always welcome as it is typically tremendous value. Collingwood have covered nine of the last 13 against Geelong and with the last 10 going under the total, the plus is a play in a projected low-scorer. The Tigers were comfortable winners when the teams met in Round 17. Geelong have covered 10 of their last 14 at their home ground and cover at 60% at the ground when favoured by fewer than three goals.

Check out the Betfair Hub and the Betfair Exchange for up to the minute AFL odds. Geelong are always a play as an underdog. They are winless in 11 games.

Richmond have covered three of their last four against Port Adelaide and have covered six of their last seven off a win so look to be in a prime spot. There’s in-depth analysis, betting strategy and reasoning behind each of their selections. They have not covered in six of their last seven.

In their last 17 when favoured in betting, the Bulldogs have covered just five. West Coast is a highly reliable betting proposition as a big home favourite in Perth so more than happy to take the Eagles. Check out all our expert tips and the final verdict below! They have won seven straight at the Adelaide Oval and have really made their base a fortress. The Hawks have just a single win in their last six and were exceptionally poor against Freo. That is no exception this week. The Bulldogs have covered just two of their last 12 interstate games. They have covered at 61% when an underdog of more than three goals. If you like Richmond to win it, the obvious selection here is Dusty. Melbourne has become an exceptional betting proposition of late. The Cats are 8-4 against the spread this season and come off three straight wins of 33-plus.

Are you using our new mobile app? They have not lobbed within 20 points in their last four. Hawthorn have covered just six of 16 as an underdog. West Coast have fallen to 5-5 against the number at Optus when favoured by more than two goals. They are losing by an average margin of nearly 40 points. The Cats were magnificent against the Magpies in what was a genuine flag performance. The Saints have covered eight of 12 as an underdog.

The Lions have covered just 1 of their last 5 as an interstate favourite and they have a poor 36% cover rate in night games. Fremantle has covered six of their last nine interstate trips and are 14-8 against the line at Marvel Stadium over the last eight seasons. North are poor favourites, covering just six of 18 when the elect by more than a goal. We have expert betting tips for all nine AFL Round 4 games this week. Aided by a catalogue of information provided in the previous AFL Betting Strategies articles, you have ... Betfair Pty Limited is licensed and regulated by the Northern Territory Government of Australia.

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